tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → New York via Washington: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:46 BHM → 20:59 DCA
    AA 5452 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 13m · 47% on time, 17.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DCA → 23:44 LGA
    AA 4660 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 14m · 70% on time, 21.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (17.7% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (21.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 58mBHM 17:46 to LGA 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.