tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Nashville via Washington: arrives on time 32%

  1. 17:46 BHM → 20:59 DCA
    AA 5452 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 13m · 47% on time, 17.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 DCA → 23:01 BNA
    AA 4686 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 01m · 85% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (17.7% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 15mBHM 17:46 to BNA 23:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.