tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:10 MHT → 19:40 CLT
    AA 5463 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 30m · 54% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:49 CLT → 22:20 DCA
    AA 527 · American · 1h 31m · 57% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 10mMHT 17:10 to DCA 22:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.