tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Philadelphia via Charlotte: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:10 MHT → 19:40 CLT
    AA 5463 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 30m · 54% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 22m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:02 CLT → 23:46 PHL
    F9 1328 · Frontier · 1h 44m · 62% on time, 6.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 52 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 22m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (6.4% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 36mMHT 17:10 to PHL 23:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.