tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → St Louis via Washington: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:12 CLE → 18:46 DCA
    AA 5470 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 32m · 57% on time, 16.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 DCA → 21:21 STL
    AA 3028 · American · 2h 21m · 56% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (16.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 09mCLE 17:12 to STL 21:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.