tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → New York via Washington: arrives on time 20%

  1. 17:12 CLE → 18:46 DCA
    AA 5470 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 32m · 57% on time, 16.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:58 DCA → 21:30 JFK
    AA 4474 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 32m · 50% on time, 27.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (16.9% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (27.3% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 18mCLE 17:12 to JFK 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.