tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:17 MSN → 16:33 PHL
    AA 5471 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 16m · 65% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 09mMSN 13:17 to ORD 19:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.