tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Atlanta via Philadelphia: arrives on time 43%

  1. 13:17 MSN → 16:33 PHL
    AA 5471 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 16m · 65% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 PHL → 19:55 ATL
    AA 3041 · American · 2h 20m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 38mMSN 13:17 to ATL 19:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.