tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Denver via Philadelphia: arrives on time 38%

  1. 13:17 MSN → 16:33 PHL
    AA 5471 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 16m · 65% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:45 DEN
    AA 3158 · American · 4h 15m · 64% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 28mMSN 13:17 to DEN 19:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.