tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Birmingham via Philadelphia: arrives on time 42%

  1. 13:30 DCA → 14:38 PHL
    AA 5474 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 08m · 65% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:41 PHL → 17:17 BHM
    AA 5064 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 36m · 65% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 47mDCA 13:30 to BHM 17:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.