tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Manchester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 52%

  1. 13:30 DCA → 14:38 PHL
    AA 5474 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 08m · 65% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 52m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:06 MHT
    AA 5942 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 36m · 61% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 127 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 52m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 36mDCA 13:30 to MHT 19:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.