tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Tulsa via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 23%

  1. 19:32 BNA → 21:48 DFW
    AA 5475 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 16m · 48% on time, 13.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:38 DFW → 23:47 TUL
    AA 531 · American · 1h 09m · 62% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (13.0% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 15mBNA 19:32 to TUL 23:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.