tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 71%

  1. 05:54 MSP → 09:36 PHL
    AA 5488 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 42m · 88% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:35 PHL → 12:09 ORD
    AA 1041 · American · 2h 34m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 15mMSP 05:54 to ORD 12:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.