tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Philadelphia via Charlotte: arrives on time 51%

  1. 14:02 DAY → 15:48 CLT
    AA 5490 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 47m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:45 CLT → 18:41 PHL
    AA 1838 · American · 1h 52m · 70% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 35mDAY 14:02 to PHL 18:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.