tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 68%

  1. 06:00 MSN → 09:19 PHL
    AA 5509 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 19m · 89% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:35 PHL → 12:09 ORD
    AA 1041 · American · 2h 34m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 09mMSN 06:00 to ORD 12:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.