tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 65%

  1. 06:00 MSN → 09:19 PHL
    AA 5509 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 19m · 89% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:30 PHL → 12:28 DTW
    AA 5530 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 58m · 83% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip5h 28mMSN 06:00 to DTW 12:28, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.