tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Norfolk via Washington: arrives on time 25%

  1. 10:48 IAH → 15:03 DCA
    AA 5526 · American, flown by PSA · 3h 15m · 62% on time, 11.5% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:59 DCA → 17:12 ORF
    AA 5338 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 13m · 61% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (11.5% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 24mIAH 10:48 to ORF 17:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.