tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Los Angeles via Philadelphia: arrives on time 32%

  1. 13:01 XNA → 16:50 PHL
    AA 5543 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 49m · 63% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 20:36 LAX
    AA 1528 · American · 5h 56m · 63% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip9h 35mXNA 13:01 to LAX 20:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.