tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Tampa via Washington: arrives on time 64%

  1. 06:00 BHM → 09:18 DCA
    AA 5561 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 16m · 90% on time, 7.9% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:15 DCA → 12:40 TPA
    AA 2852 · American · 2h 25m · 81% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (7.9% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 40mBHM 06:00 to TPA 12:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.