tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rapid City → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 31%

  1. 11:50 RAP → 17:25 CLT
    AA 5579 · American, flown by PSA · 3h 35m · 70% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 CLT → 19:51 ORD
    AA 2488 · American · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Rapid City). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip7h 01mRAP 11:50 to ORD 19:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.