tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Chicago via St Louis: arrives on time 31%

  1. 14:59 DCA → 16:30 STL
    AA 5582 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 31m · 68% on time, 5.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:19 STL → 19:12 ORD
    AA 4537 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 53m · 79% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (5.0% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 13mDCA 14:59 to ORD 19:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.