tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Washington via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 14%

  1. 17:30 PHL → 19:11 RDU
    AA 5590 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 41m · 62% on time, 8.8% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:04 RDU → 21:30 DCA
    AA 4752 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 26m · 38% on time, 23.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (8.8% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (23.8% are) and within 15 minutes (38%).
Total trip4h 00mPHL 17:30 to DCA 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.