tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Las Vegas via Philadelphia: arrives on time 30%

  1. 19:45 RDU → 21:24 PHL
    AA 5590 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 39m · 57% on time, 11.8% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:13 PHL → 00:32 LAS +1 day
    AA 3250 · American · 5h 19m · 65% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (11.8% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip7h 47mRDU 19:45 to LAS 00:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.