tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Washington via Indianapolis: arrives on time 35%

  1. 14:11 PHL → 16:18 IND
    AA 5592 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 07m · 70% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Indianapolis (IND) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:09 IND → 19:09 DCA
    AA 4452 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 51m · 71% on time, 13.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (13.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 49mPHL 14:11 to DCA 19:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.