tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → New York via Washington: arrives on time 38%

  1. 16:34 MSN → 19:49 DCA
    AA 5599 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 15m · 48% on time, 11.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 41m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DCA → 23:44 LGA
    AA 4660 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 14m · 70% on time, 21.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 116 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 41m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (11.5% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (21.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 10mMSN 16:34 to LGA 23:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.