tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Pensacola → New York via Washington: arrives on time 28%

  1. 10:30 PNS → 13:59 DCA
    AA 5607 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 29m · 52% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:56 DCA → 16:33 LGA
    AA 4773 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 64% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 00mPNS 10:30 to LGA 16:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.