tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 54%

  1. 16:01 TVC → 18:25 CLT
    AA 5628 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 25m · 81% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 02m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:27 CLT → 22:00 ORD
    AA 627 · American · 2h 33m · 61% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Traverse City). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 77 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 02m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 59mTVC 16:01 to ORD 22:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.