tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Miami via Washington: arrives on time 23%

  1. 15:29 PHL → 16:44 DCA
    AA 5636 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 15m · 43% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 DCA → 20:34 MIA
    AA 1612 · American · 2h 54m · 62% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 05mPHL 15:29 to MIA 20:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.