tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Dayton via Washington: arrives on time 20%

  1. 15:29 PHL → 16:44 DCA
    AA 5636 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 15m · 43% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:38 DCA → 19:22 DAY
    AA 5162 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 44m · 57% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip3h 53mPHL 15:29 to DAY 19:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.