tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Raleigh/Durham via Washington: arrives on time 11%

  1. 15:29 PHL → 16:44 DCA
    AA 5636 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 15m · 43% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 DCA → 19:24 RDU
    AA 4752 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 25m · 25% on time, 23.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (23.8% are) and within 15 minutes (25%).
Total trip3h 55mPHL 15:29 to RDU 19:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.