tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Nashville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:15 RDU → 16:50 PHL
    AA 5644 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 35m · 63% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 PHL → 18:55 BNA
    AA 5580 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 19m · 70% on time, 11.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (11.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 40mRDU 15:15 to BNA 18:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.