tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Pittsburgh via Philadelphia: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:15 RDU → 16:50 PHL
    AA 5644 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 35m · 63% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:12 PIT
    AA 6092 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 32m · 69% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 3h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip3h 57mRDU 15:15 to PIT 19:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.