tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Milwaukee → New York via Washington: arrives on time 56%

  1. 06:01 MKE → 09:10 DCA
    AA 5646 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 11m · 84% on time, 7.2% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:59 DCA → 11:25 LGA
    AA 4491 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 26m · 85% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (7.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip4h 24mMKE 06:01 to LGA 11:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.