tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Tampa via Philadelphia: arrives on time 45%

  1. 13:08 MSP → 16:50 PHL
    AA 5658 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 42m · 75% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:58 PHL → 20:40 TPA
    AA 2322 · American · 2h 42m · 62% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 32mMSP 13:08 to TPA 20:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.