tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Knoxville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 41%

  1. 13:08 MSP → 16:50 PHL
    AA 5658 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 42m · 75% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 PHL → 20:00 TYS
    AA 5066 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 12m · 65% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 52mMSP 13:08 to TYS 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.