tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Hebron via Philadelphia: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:08 MSP → 16:50 PHL
    AA 5658 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 42m · 75% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:42 CVG
    AA 5534 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 02m · 64% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 34mMSP 13:08 to CVG 19:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.