tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Kahului via San Diego: arrives on time 35%

  1. 08:36 SMF → 10:20 SAN
    AS 3015 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 44m · 70% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:07 SAN → 14:12 OGG
    AS 254 · Alaska · 6h 05m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip8h 36mSMF 08:36 to OGG 14:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.