tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Seattle via San Diego: arrives on time 41%

  1. 08:36 SMF → 10:20 SAN
    AS 3015 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 44m · 70% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:21 SAN → 14:25 SEA
    AS 475 · Alaska · 3h 04m · 60% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 49mSMF 08:36 to SEA 14:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.