tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Santa Barbara via San Diego: arrives on time 14%

  1. 19:59 DEN → 21:40 SAN
    AS 3020 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 2h 41m · 27% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:32 SAN → 23:44 SBA
    AS 2175 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 12m · 93% on time, 19.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection20%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 80% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (20%) × second flight not cancelled (19.2% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip4h 45mDEN 19:59 to SBA 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.