tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Seattle via San Diego: arrives on time 48%

  1. 17:37 SMF → 19:21 SAN
    AS 3036 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 44m · 54% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 SAN → 23:41 SEA
    AS 1362 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 72% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 04mSMF 17:37 to SEA 23:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.