tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Las Vegas via San Diego: arrives on time 15%

  1. 17:37 SMF → 19:21 SAN
    AS 3036 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 44m · 54% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 SAN → 21:43 LAS
    AS 2274 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 28m · 35% on time, 5.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (5.9% are) and within 15 minutes (35%).
Total trip4h 06mSMF 17:37 to LAS 21:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.