tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Rosa → Seattle via San Diego: arrives on time 50%

  1. 11:04 STS → 12:50 SAN
    AS 3047 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 46m · 60% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:59 SAN → 16:58 SEA
    AS 465 · Alaska · 2h 59m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 54mSTS 11:04 to SEA 16:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.