tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 12:03 PDX → 13:03 SEA
    AS 3078 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 00m · 86% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:49 SEA → 16:41 SNA
    AS 773 · Alaska · 2h 52m · 87% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip4h 38mPDX 12:03 to SNA 16:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.