tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Sacramento via San Diego: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:59 AUS → 16:05 SAN
    AS 3084 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 3h 06m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:56 SAN → 18:38 SMF
    AS 2334 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 42m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 39mAUS 14:59 to SMF 18:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.