tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Monterey → Seattle via San Diego: arrives on time 34%

  1. 15:05 MRY → 16:39 SAN
    AS 3221 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 34m · 55% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 SAN → 20:35 SEA
    AS 417 · Alaska · 3h 00m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 30mMRY 15:05 to SEA 20:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.