tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:31 SAN → 20:12 SFO
    AS 3232 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 41m · 28% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 18m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 SFO → 06:20 JFK +1 day
    AS 211 · Alaska · 5h 50m · 92% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 33 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 18m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip8h 49mSAN 18:31 to JFK 06:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.