tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 42%

  1. 18:03 SNA → 19:33 SFO
    AS 3248 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 30m · 65% on time, 3.1% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:28 SFO → 22:41 SEA
    AS 591 · Alaska · 2h 13m · 72% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.1% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 38mSNA 18:03 to SEA 22:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.