tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Las Vegas via San Diego: arrives on time 8%

  1. 19:59 AUS → 21:13 SAN
    AS 3249 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 3h 14m · 57% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:02 SAN → 23:28 LAS
    AS 2305 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 26m · 27% on time, 13.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (13.3% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip5h 29mAUS 19:59 to LAS 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.