tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Chicago via San Diego: arrives on time 37%

  1. 14:50 OAK → 16:26 SAN
    AS 3311 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:23 SAN → 23:36 ORD
    AS 1493 · Alaska · 4h 13m · 70% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 46mOAK 14:50 to ORD 23:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.