tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Honolulu via San Diego: arrives on time 28%

  1. 14:50 OAK → 16:26 SAN
    AS 3311 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:16 SAN → 20:22 HNL
    AS 894 · Alaska · 6h 06m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection37%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 63% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (37%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 32mOAK 14:50 to HNL 20:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.